The actuarial phase, again, represents a new penology as it focuses less on things like responsibility, guilt, intervention and rehabilitation, but instead focuses on setting out techniques for the identification, classification and management of groups according to risk levels. But the effects of Predpol and CAS on crime reduction (i.e. The e-mail addresses that you supply to use this service will not be used for any other purpose without your consent. They are analyzed by means of a prediction model that uses co-arrests to previous homicide victims to predict the likelihood that a person becomes a homicide perpetrator or victim (Saunders et al., 2016: 354–357). Based on empirical data it creates a Strategic Subjects List (SSL): a rank-order list of individuals that have an increased likelihood of engagement in violent criminal activity. Chronic hotspots are long term in duration and necessitate problem-oriented policing strategies to address the root causes of crime. If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. This was not sustained and after a 15-month trial period no further overall reductions were observed. Predictive Policing, the basics explains how to implement a program to help any agency reduce any type of crime problem. 1.See e.g. This argument actually applies to criminal legislation based on the harm principle as well. Generally, there are four categoriesof predictions that the system can make: 1. But the evidence predictive policing tools for predicting offenders or crime locations provide, is not entirely neutral. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click on download. Similar concerns rise with regard to predictive policing tools for predicting crime locations. It reads as follows: ‘everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life, his home and his correspondence. But the fact that certain data are omitted, does not mean that they are irrelevant. Data Analytics Is Making Predictive Policing Possible. the UK’s Terrorism Act 2000 sec. But in the long run, the causes of crime are an important key to crime prevention. Some legal scholars belong to the proponents of predictive policing that claim that predictive policing tools for predicting offenders and crime locations actually restore instead of erode the right to privacy of persons thought to be likely to commit a crime or people living in high-crime neighborhoods (see e.g. In recent years, these algorithms have become more sophisticated and, due to an increase in computer power and storage, bigger data sets can be analyzed (Mehozay and Fisher, 2019: 524; Perry et al., 2013: 3–4). Imagine, for example, that a predictive policing tool for predicting crime locations has directed police officers to a certain area where property crime is likely to occur. Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time. Generally speaking, predictive policing is a technology allowing one to identify potential criminal activities in certain areas. The novelty of predictive policing, its goals and promises, are put under criticism and discussion. Police officers have always tried to identify crime-prone individuals and crime hotspots. If race and class become data points for risk factors, predictive policing tools can lead us to believe our own worst instincts (Ferguson, 2015: 402). Predictive policing allows us to let statistical algorithms find all kinds of patterns, but these patterns do not always indicate causation, while an understanding of causation is necessary in order to predict the impact of police intervention (Chan and Bennett Moses, 2016: 22, 32). Predictive policing itself may spur the recording of crime in a neighborhood, but that may only mean that criminals change their work area and crime rates increase in adjacent areas (Bennett Moses and Chan, 2016: 5). The UK’s West Midlands Police seeks to demystify these strategies, address technical shortcomings of the tools and tactics involved, and as a moral imperative – harness relevant data to save lives. Victims are at an elevated risk of crime in the months directly following an event (Johnson et al., 2007). The formula can be mathematical, but it can also be a logical statement, like a rule, or a hybrid of the two. Moreover, the location of clusters of burglary is not predictable over periods of 3 or more months (Johnson and Bowers, 2004a), because the characteristics of an area change over time and the perpetrator’s memory for the features of a particular house and those nearby may decay (Johnson et al., 2007: 215). As was established in the last section, it is important that this consideration can be made, because of the interests that are at stake. Once a perpetrator has committed a crime, it is easier to repeat that crime than to identify a new location and/or criminal act. The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations. Predictive policing tries to harness the power of information, geospatial technologies and evidence-based intervention models to reduce crime and improve public safety. After a 4-month trial period a 4% reduction in all crime was observed. Given the large amounts of data eligible for processing in SyRI, including personal data, and the fact that risk profiles are used, there is a risk that inadvertent links are established with the use of SyRI on the basis of bias, such as a lower socio-economic status or an immigration background (§ 6.93). I would like to thank my brother Rense Strikwerda, data analyst, and two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments. The right to privacy in the case of data protection touches upon the right to equal treatment in equal cases and the right to protection against discrimination, stereotyping and stigmatization (§ 6.24). Focusing specifically on the Dutch predictive policing tools SyRI (for predicting offenders) and CAS (for predicting crime locations), this paper has described predictive policing as part of the shift from harm to risk that is effectuated by the development toward a pre-crime society (Zedner, 2007), the accompanying culture of control (Garland, 2001) and the new penal logic (Feeley and Simon, 1992) they give rise to. In broad terms, it entails that society is focused on the control and management of risks. Consider, for instance, laws that prohibit the collection or possession of information that could be useful to commit or prepare an act of terrorism.1 Predictive policing can also be seen as a pre-emptive ordering practice, for it aims to prevent crime by predicting where and when or by whom it will be committed. For the sake of completeness, it should be added that the techniques used in predictive policing can also have other objectives, namely: the prediction of perpetrator’s identities (when likely offenders are matched with specific past crimes) or the prediction of victims (Perry et al., 2013: 8–9). Based on those algorithms, police deployment is decided on. The latter also goes for other predictive policing tools for predicting offenders. Prediction of vi… the policing of public places. It will be argued predictive policing is part of the broader development toward a pre-crime society (Zedner, 2007), the accompanying culture of control (Garland, 2001) and the new penal logic (Feeley and Simon, 1992) it gives rise to and that the ethical issues surrounding this phenomenon can be better understood against this background. Unfortunately, these judgments include all kinds of biases. According to the criminologist Zedner we are on the cusp of a shift from a post-crime society, within which the dominant ordering practices arise post hoc, to a pre-crime society, within which ordering practices are pre-emptive. In European countries the right to privacy is protected by article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights. to prevent and combat fraud in the interest of economic welfare, with the intrusion into private life that it makes. Therefore, this paper will come to the conclusion that predictive policing should also be used to direct interventions to locations and persons where they are most needed if we really want to reduce crime. the policing of new housing developments. This is problematic because it goes against an important moral value, namely: the value of transparency, which is among the key requirements for Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence (Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI, Chapter II). police focused on the “means” of policing rather than its “ends”, according to Goldstein. When for example CAS or PredPol directs police officers toward a place where crime is likely to occur at a time it is likely to occur, they cannot reasonably assume that all persons there present are involved in a crime. In case of burglary, not only the burgled home is at risk of being burgled soon again, but also other, similar properties in the neighborhood (Johnson and Bowers, 2004b). However, predictive policing carries a risk in itself, for the algorithms employed are often a ‘black box’, meaning that the risk calculations provided cannot be explained. Prior victimization has a greater predictive power than any other variable (Johnson and Bowers, 2004b). It will explain the risks associated with the risk assessments predictive policing tools provide and end with the recommendation to use predictive policing not only for police deployment, but also to target problem-oriented responses to crime to the right persons and places. ORCID iDLitska Strikwerda https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9001-5067. Had he lived in another area, police officers would probably not have thought they had reason to interfere with his right to privacy. Sunday, the New York Times published a well-meaning op-ed about the fears of racial bias in artificial intelligence and predictive policing systems. They argue as follows. The use of CAS, a predictive policing tool for predicting crime locations, just increased as it has been implemented nationwide since 2019 (Halfjaarbericht politie 2019, bijlage 5: 3), making the Netherlands the first country in the world to deploy predictive policing on a national scale. The shift from post hoc ordering practices to pre-emptive ordering practices goes hand in hand with a shift from a perception of crime as harm to a perception of crime as risk (Zedner, 2007: 262). the outcome of the police response employed) are disappointing. Crime forecasting is not a new phenomenon; it has been around for decades. Patterns, in other words, make visible and give form to knowledge about regular occurrences of crimes that lie hidden in data sets. © 2020 PredPol, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Prospective hot-spotting: the future of crime mapping? They make use of different algorithms, requiring the input of different (amounts of) data and resulting in different statistical predictions of the likeliness that that a certain person will commit a crime or crime will occur at a certain place. It identifies potential victims and perpetrators associated with the continuum of gun violence in the city of Chicago. Intelligence-led policing allows police departments to utilize data and in… But the evidence predictive policing tools for predicting offenders or crime locations provide, is not entirely neutral, because it is based on assumptions that do not need to be true. There shall be no interference by a public authority with the exercise of this right except such as is in accordance with the law and is necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security, public safety or the economic well-being of the country, for the prevention of disorder or crime (…)’. Moreover, the investigatory utility of the data available improves because they are networked: law enforcement agencies and private companies connect their databases and, thereby, aggregate their data (Ferguson, 2015: 354, 360). This lack of transparency is even more problematic because of the nature of the decisions that can be based on the risk calculations provided by predictive policing, such as the deployment of investigatory powers. As it is only used in Chicago, the ECHR is not applicable, but in the US, the fourth amendment of the U.S. Constitution protects people’s right to privacy from arbitrary governmental intrusions. Well-known theories for predicting offenders are the strain theories, which assume people can be pressured into crime. Especially the impact of 9/11 has pressed governments to think and act pre-emptively (Zedner, 2007: 264). Predictive policing does not stand on its own but is part of a broader development and the ethical issues surrounding this phenomenon can be better understood against this background. The best predictor of victimization is prior victimization. Berk and Bleich, 2013: 541). Recently, the Dutch SyRI (short for: Systeem Risico Indicatie, which translates as System Risk Indication) generated a lot of attention, because the district court of The Hague ruled it violates the right to privacy as contained in article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (Rb. The application of analytical techniques, particularly quantitative techniques, to identify promising targets for police intervention with the goal of reducing crime risk by preventing future crimes or solving past crimes. For years, [when?] Proponents claim that predictive policing tools for predicting offenders and crime locations actually restore instead of erode the rights of persons thought to be likely to commit a crime or living in a crime-prone neighborhood, because they provide neutral, quantitative evidence that a person is indeed likely to commit a crime or that an area is indeed a high-crime area. Bill Bratton et al. This conclusion gives rise to other questions, such as whether crime can be seen as a risk in itself, which is de underlying idea of predictive policing. Algorithmic prediction in policing: assumptions, evaluation and accountability, Statistical procedures for forecasting criminal behavior. Problem-oriented responses, such as mentor programs, youth sports programs and neighborhood meetings, can be a more effective way to prevent crime than police deployment (Bennett Moses and Chan, 2016: 8). In the 1990s algorithms for crime forecasting were computerized. development of predictive policing has been recognized as presenting a genuine threat to the traditional meaning of “reasonable suspicion” and related justifications for the application of First, Fourth, Fifth and Fourteenth Amendment rights to the targets of police attention (Cohen, 2019; Ferguson, 2015, 2016; Maharrey, 2018). 2 : based on or generated by using methods of prediction predictive models predictive text Usually predictive policing refers to feeding reams of city data into a computer and dispatching extra officers to areas that are deemed to be at high risk of future crime… There present they see a person carrying a duffel bag. 3. Sharing links are not available for this article. Strictly speaking, while all labeled as “predictive policing,” they share neither theoretical bases nor implications and consequences in practice (Ferguson 2017a, p. 1148). 149, Public Law and Legal Theory Working Paper No. 2. the actions of a person or group in authority in order to ensure fairness and legality in an area of public life. The Custom Notifications program serves as notice that law enforcement action will be targeted specifically to the individual and continuation to participate in gun violence will have cognizable penalties (Chicago Police Department 2015). For more information view the SAGE Journals Sharing page. Some society journals require you to create a personal profile, then activate your society account, You are adding the following journals to your email alerts, Did you struggle to get access to this article? by . If police would, for example, assume that tattoos correlate with crime and, therefore, focus surveillance on people with tattoos, people planning to commit crimes may decide against getting tattoos (Chan and Bennett Moses, 2016: 33). But this does not need to be the case, especially with regard to crime data. Anti-terrorism laws generally broaden criminal liability because they criminalize the preliminary stage of terrorist acts, before they become harmful (Borgers and Van Sliedrecht, 2009: 175). The National Institute of Justice, the research, development and evaluation agency of the United States Department of Justice, notes that law enforcement work is frequently reactive: officers respond to calls for service, quell disturbances and make arrests. The focus is on getting individuals to … Properties within 400 meters of a burgled house are at a significantly elevated risk of burglary for up to two months after the initial event (Bowers et al., 2004). According to Agnew the most important strains are if people are treated negatively by others, lose something that is valuable to them or cannot achieve their goals. According to Perry et al., who have written a baseline document on this topic, ‘predictive policing is the application of analytical techniques—particularly quantitative techniques—to identify likely targets for police intervention and prevent crime (…) by making statistical predictions’ (Perry et al., 2013: 1–2). Available at: Commission of the European Communities Communication from the Commission of 2 February 2000 on the precautionary principle (COM (2000) 1) . Predictive policing methods fall into four general categories: methods for predicting crimes, methods for predicting offenders, methods for predicting perpetrators' identities, and methods for predicting victims of crime. 58. We can connect the dots between a smile, a sarcastic tone, the literal meaning of a sentence, and what the speaker intended to say. As will be explained in the next section, the same goes for police action taken in response to a prediction by a predictive policing tool, especially when the prediction is based on a risk analysis that is not transparent nor explainable because the algorithm employed is a ‘black box’. Lean Library can solve it. There are, to my knowledge, no data available about SyRI. 2004, 351, inw.tr., Stb. Race, class, choice of clothing, gender and age all factor into police officers’ discretionary decisions (Ferguson, 2015: 389). John M. Olin Law & Economics Working Paper No. When you hear the term intelligence-led policing you might think of some type of covert, spy movie type of surveillance to gather information in a shadowy type of way. Please check you selected the correct society from the list and entered the user name and password you use to log in to your society website. In the world of policing, it means something totally different. The email address and/or password entered does not match our records, please check and try again. predictive meaning: 1. relating to the ability to predict: 2. used to describe a computer system that predicts what is…. View or download all content the institution has subscribed to. Prediction of offenders. The routine activity theory assumes that crime will not take place ‘unless a motivated offender comes into contact with a suitable target (opportunity for crime) in the absence of a capable guardian’ (Ibid.). Since the risk analyses often lack transparency and explainability, it is not possible to weigh the crime risks to be prevented and the risks of crime prevention properly, which may lead to disproportionate intrusions with the right to privacy and violation of the related rights to equal … Focusing on the Dutch tools SyRI and CAS, this paper describes predictive policing against the background of the broader development toward a pre-crime society, the accompanying culture of control and the new penal logic it gives rise to. These strains evoke negative emotions which in turn encourage delinquent behavior (Agnew, 2006: 19; Kolthoff, 2016: 85–86). Moreover, the developers of a particular predictive policing tool have selected the appropriate algorithm with a certain model or theory of crime prediction in mind (Bennett Moses and Chan, 2016: 6). Not all predictive policing tools for predicting offenders or crime locations are the same. This product could help you, Accessing resources off campus can be a challenge. CAS has generated a lot of public interest as well since it has been implemented nationwide in 2019 (Halfjaarbericht politie 2019, bijlage 5: 3). The influential American legal scholar Cass Sunstein, who focuses specifically on the precautionary principle as a moral ground for the criminalization of certain behaviors, claims that it ‘becomes operational if and only if those who apply it wear blinders-only, that is, if they focus on some aspects of the regulatory situation but downplay or disregard others’ (Sunstein, 2003: 26). Proponents of these techniques argue that they introduce a new level of accuracy and may even eliminate forms of bias that were inherent in previous methods of risk assessment. There are a number of plausible explanations for this: the characteristics of an area can change over time (e.g. Meanwhile, the amount of data available has grown exponentially and still does: it doubles in volume every 2 years. predictive policing is done through software called PredPol. Available at: <, Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI, Independent High-Level on Artificial Intelligence set up by the European Commission , available at <, European Convention on Human Rights, Rome, 4 November 1950 . Den Haag, 05-02-2020, ECLI: NL: RBDHA:2020:865, available at http://www.rechtspraak.nl). But in light of the fact that the predictive policing tool identifies the person concerned as likely to commit a crime, police officers may see almost every act he or she performs as suspicious. the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. From a data science perspective, predictive policing is a predictive model, which can be described as ‘a formula for estimating the unknown value of interest’ (Provost and Fawcett, 2013: 45). An example of another predictive policing tool for predicting crime locations that makes use of the near-repeat concept is PredPol. As mentioned before, the models used in predictive policing have not been specifically developed for crime prediction, but originate from seismology and epidemiology (Johnson and Bowers, 2004b; Mohler et al., 2016: 1400). It is easy to see that arsenic is potentially dangerous; it is well-known as a poison. Predictive policing has become a widely discussed phrase in the last few years, sometimes being used so broadly and for so many technologies that the real performance features and technical specifications get lost. It will also explain how they affect the accuracy of the predictions these tools offer. Since the risk analyses often lack transparency and explainability, it is not possible to weigh the crime risks to be prevented and the risks of crime prevention properly, which may lead to disproportionate intrusions with the right to privacy and violation of the related rights to equal treatment in equal cases and to protection against discrimination, stereotyping and stigmatization. The concept of the risk society originally derives from the sociologist Beck (Beck, 1986). The second general assumption underlying the algorithms at work in predictive policing tools of any type is that history repeats itself. The Custom Notification program is used on a citywide basis by the Chicago Police Department since July 2013 and has been developed by the Chicago Police Department itself in collaboration with the Illinois Institute of Technology. As was established before, there is evidence that specifically burglary is geographically concentrated, as it clusters in space and time more than one would expect if the perceived patterns of crime would simply result from the attractiveness of places to offenders (Johnson et al., 2007, 2009). From the mid-1980s onward risk factor prevention became a dominant paradigm in crime control (Mehozay and Fisher, 2019: 524). The Dutch government stopped using SyRI, a predictive policing tool for predicting fraudsters, because the District Court of The Hague ruled it violates the right to privacy as contained in article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (Rb. Contact us if you experience any difficulty logging in. That activity is by itself not obviously suspicious but in light of the fact that the predictive policing tool has identified the area as a place where property crime is likely to occur, the police officers find it suspicious and stop the person in order to search his bag for burglar’s tools or stolen property (Joh, 2014: 55–59). That is problematic because predictive policing results in ‘social sorting’: it sorts people into categories assigning risk (Van Brakel and De Hert, 2011: 176). Developments in mathematical and statistical modeling, high-performance cloud computing, and GPS-enabled mobile devices now make it possible for frequently updated crime forecasts to be at the disposal of officers in the field. (source). Moreover, crime data are necessarily limited to reports by victims and police observations. They can instead be legitimated on the basis of the precautionary principle, which originates, and that is in light of Beck’s Risk Society not surprising, in environmental and public health law. Remember that some of the advantages of data analytics and Big Data application are also some of the advantages of predictive policing. Not only is the selection of the appropriate algorithm, but also the design of the algorithms themselves based on assumptions. In case of burglary, especially in wealthy housing areas where people have the means to do so, counter-measures are often taken against revictimization. Predictive Policing Symposium. This can be explained as follows. Intelligence-led policingcan be defined as a policing philosophy that follows a business or managerial model of operating an organization. Definition of predictive. It inputs, among other things, employment data, civic integration data, debt data, health insurance data (whether or not someone has a health insurance) and personal data (name, address, date of birth etc.). A recent evaluation of CAS by the Dutch Police Academy shows that the number of burglaries in Amsterdam indeed reduced, but the researchers did not find a correlation with the predictions made by CAS (Mali et al., 2017: 98). Predictive policing is not the same thing as facial recognition technology, which is more often used after a crime is committed to attempt to identify a perpetrator. It was used by the government to prevent and combat fraud in the areas of social security and income-related schemes, tax and social security contributions and labor laws. Clearly, the omission of relevant data affects the accuracy of predictive policing tools (Bennet Moses and Chan, 2016: 6). Declaration of conflicting interestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. Or are the causes of crime the actual risks that need to be prevented? The data analyzed in the context of predictive policing always consist of historical data. Predictive policing tries to harness the power of information, geospatial technologies and evidence-based intervention models to reduce crime and improve public safety. The results of an independent evaluation by Kent Police (UK) are less positive. Have different meanings in different organizations to succinctly establish parameters for a current of! My brother Rense Strikwerda, data analyst, and two anonymous reviewers their. And Fisher, 2019: predictive policing meaning ) policing tool in question was being developed ) is lot... Of these tools necessarily involves Human discretion ( Joh, 2014: ). 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